News in Numbers, May 26, 2016: Capital goods policy, SEBI’s push to delist 4,200 firms…

Rs 7.5 lakh crore

What is it? The expected value of capital goods made in India in 2025 from Rs 2.3 lakh crore in 2014-15.

Why is it important? The government, which on Wednesday approved a policy on capital goods, hopes to generate more jobs in this sector: 30 million by 2025 from 8.4 million now. It’s in line with the government’s  ‘Make in India’ programme, which aims to increase the share of manufacturing sector as a percentage of GDP from around the current 17% to 25% by 2020.

Tell me more: The policy seeks to increase exports from 27% to 40% of production and to up the share of domestic production in India’s capital goods demand from 60% to 80% by 2025, which would make India a net exporter of capital goods. Capital goods production, which is 8.8% of the Index of Industrial Production and is a proxy for industrial and investment demand, contracted for the fifth straight month (as of March) year-on-year.

 

4,200

What is it? The number of companies the markets regulator is pushing for delisting from the stock exchanges.

Why is it important? This is to prevent price manipulation through firms that are not actively traded, which would improve governance of public markets and the listed companies. It would also help in reducing regulatory burden. However, firms could misuse this to become non-compliant in order to delist themselves instead of following the proper delisting norms.

Tell me more: Of the 4,200, there are 1,200 companies that have been suspended from trading for seven years (typically, for non-compliance of rules) and 3,000 that are only listed on regional exchanges, some of which cease to exist. The Securities and Exchange Board of India has also warned strict action against auditors if they are found to play a role in market manipulation.

 

54%

What is it? The percentage of ICICI Bank’s bad loans on the account of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) asset quality review in the last six months of 2015-16.

Why is it important? Shows the extent to which banks have been under-reporting their bad loans. ICICI Bank is not the only one. For Punjab National Bank, Bank of Baroda, Axis Bank and Yes Bank, the equivalent numbers are: 45%, 41%, 30% and 24%. Of the large banks that have declared their results so far, about 44% of their bad loans is due to the central bank’s asset quality review.

Tell me more: The gross bad loans of 39 listed banks was Rs 4.3 lakh crore at the end of December 2015. In April, it was reported that over Rs 3 lakh crore were classified under a category where repayments were overdue by 30-60 days while another Rs 3.17 lakh crore had repayments overdue by 60-90 days, and a portion of this may turn into bad loans during the year.

 

Rs 184.96 crore

What is it? Online restaurant discovery/food ordering service firm Zomato Media’s revenue in 2015-16 from Rs 96.73 crore the previous year.

Why is it important? Despite almost doubling its revenue from last year, it recorded loss before tax of Rs 492.27 crore in the year ended March 2016. Food startups have been facing problems including slowdown in funding, with many of the firms either closing down, getting acquired or reducing their operations.

Tell me more: Last month, HSBC Securities and Capital Markets reduced Zomato’s valuation by $500 million, about half the valuation at which it had raised its last round of funding in September 2015.

 

$50

What is it? Price of Brent crude oil per barrel, an increase of 79% from a 12-year-low of $27.88 a barrel in January.

Why is it important? This is the first time oil has breached the $50-mark. This means higher fuel prices for motorists and reduction in savings for the Indian government due to a likely increase in oil subsidies. In Delhi, fuel prices have increased by over 7% this year. India’s crude oil import bill has almost halved to $64 billion in 2015-16.

Tell me more: The basket of crude oil India imports averaged $105.5 per barrel in 2013-14, $84.2 a barrel in 2014-15 and $46.2 per barrel in 2015-16.

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The demographic number that binds cities in Bihar and Kerala

This piece originally appeared on Livemint.com

 

On nearly every socioeconomic indicator, these two states tend to sit on opposite ends of the spectrum. But there’s one where they sit side by side: their inability to hold on to their young with ample economic opportunities, shows an analysis of Census age data of 505 Indian cities and towns with a population of more than 100,000. At a broader level, this data is illustrative of the concentration of economic opportunities in India to select city clusters, raising questions about migration and livelihoods.

Concentration of economic opportunities

Of the 505 cities and towns with a population above 100,000, in only 30 does the 20-34 age group—the prime and potential of a workforce—make up more than 30% of their population. Maharashtra dominates this list, with 10 cities. Other than Maharashtra, only Gujarat, the Nationa Capital Territory (NCT) of Delhi and Tamil Nadu have more than one city in the top 20. Uttar Pradesh, the state with the most such cities and towns (64), has only one in this list; as do the next two states, West Bengal (61) and Madhya Pradesh (44).

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Maharashtra on one end, Bihar and Kerala on the other

Several industrial hubs, like Pimpri Chinchwad and Pithampur, feature in the 15 cities with the highest percentage of 20-34 year-olds. Four of the top 15 cities are from Maharashtra. In the bottom 15, Kerala has seven cities and Bihar has four.

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Even within states, there is wide variance

Bihar and Kerala are a distinct notch below other states in having a young population in their cities and towns. Although Maharashtra dominates the top, it also shows a wide variance, suggesting uneven development. Two other large states that show wide variance are Madhya Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.

 

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Bihar and Kerala

Although Bihar and Kerala are lumped in the bottom, there are nuances. While Bihar is primarily about urban migration caused by a lack of economic opportunities, Kerala’s numbers are also tempered by fertility rates that are lower and life expectancy that is higher than most Indian states.

 

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Urban migration without families

Most cities and towns with the highest percentage of 20-34 yearolds have lopsided sex ratios, which indicate that single men, or men leaving their families behind, are migrating to them for work.

 

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Among populous cities, Kolkata has the smallest percentage of the young

A majority of the 15 most populous cities have a middling to high percentage of 20-34 years in their population. Kolkata, Lucknow and Kanpur come in at the bottom of this list. In terms of sex ratio in this age bracket, most cities show a male skew, other than Hyderabad and Chennai.

 

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Notes: Data is for 2011, before Andhra Pradesh was bifurcated to form Telangana. In order to enable understanding and facilitate indicative comparison, city names have been stripped of their administrative Census definitions like municipal corporations, outgrowths, census towns, etc. So, for example, Bengaluru here represents the Greater Bengaluru metropolitan area, or Bruhat Bengaluru Mahanagara Palike (BBMP).

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News In Numbers – August 25

News In Numbers: August 25

 

Rs 1,033 crore

The income-tax exemption extended by the government to six national political parties between 2006-07 and 2010-11, according to the Association for Democratic Reforms, a non-profit. This has been cited by ADR, in a public interest litigation, as one of the financial reasons to bring political parties under the ambit of the Right to Information (RTI) Act, which would mandate them to share information about their functioning with the public. Yesterday, in the Supreme Court, the government opposed this. Other financial reasons cited by ADR include allotment of land, accommodation/bunglows at concessional rent, and free airtime on state TV and radio broadcasters.

 

$43.6

The price of a barrel of Brent crude oil on the London markets, following yesterday’s sharp fall in global markets, including those in commodities. Brent Crude fell below $45 per barrel for the first time since 2009, and it has deepened what has already been a major decline in global commodity prices, following the weakness in the Chinese economy. Crude oil prices could fall even further as major oil-producing nations such as Iran look to expand production. The fall in crude prices will help keep India’s oil subsidies low: a $1 decline in prices of crude, which is India’s largest import, reduces the country’s import bill by around Rs 6,700 crore.

 

50%+

Share of mobile devices in total searches on Google originating from India. This is a marked increase from the 25% in the second half of 2013, and underscores why the mobile will lead the coming wave of Internet adoption in India. Although smartphone sales in India dipped 7% in the first quarter of 2015, they rebounded smartly in the second quarter, with sales of 26.5 million units, a growth of 44% over the corresponding period of 2014.

 

Rs 2,700 crore

The cumulative bad loans three public sector banks — Union Bank of India, Corporation Bank and Bank of Maharashtra — are planning to sell to asset reconstruction companies (ARCs) in the second quarter of 2015-16. Of these three, the gross non-performing asset (NPA) ratio of only Bank of Maharashtra showed a decrease in the June quarter of 2015-16, compared to the last quarter of 2014-15. Union Bank of India tops the list of public sector banks in bad loans, including restructured assets, as a percentage of total advances. In the March quarter of the last financial year, only Rs 5,500 crore of bad loans were on offer for sale to ARCs, against Rs 50,000 crore in all of 2013-14. This is due to a new rule by the central bank asking ARCs to pay more cash upfront for bad loans. Banks have been battling with the problem of rising bad loans, affecting their profitability.

 


Rs 25,200 crore
The amount the Adani Group is planning to invest in two major projects in Chhattisgarh — a coal to poly- generation project, and a rice bran solvent extraction plant and refinery. The company expects the two projects to generate employment for 10,600 people in the state. The Gujarat-based group recently signed a Rs 7,525-crore project with the Kerala government for development of the Vizhinjam port. The group has had a chequered history in terms of its environmental practices and, recently, it suffered a setback in Australia when a local court overturned the government approval for its $16-billion coal mine project there.

 

 

 

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News In Numbers – August 24

News In Numbers: August 24

 

58%

The percentage of water of the total live storage capacity currently held by the 91 main reservoirs in India. This is about 14% lower than the water stored by these reservoirs in the same period last year. Worse, this is also less than the last 10 years’ average storage of 98.7 billion cubic metres of water. Region-wise, only the northern (Himachal Pradesh, Punjab and Rajasthan) and the central (Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh) regions have more water than the last 10 years’ average storage. According to a Central Water Commission member, the reservoir storage has been directly impacted by less rainfall across India. With the country showing signs of slipping into a drought year, the weather department said 58% of India received normal rainfall, 29% deficient and 13% excess.

 

Rs 80 crore

The amount the newest bank in India, Bandhan Bank, garnered in deposits by opening 60,000 new accounts on its first day. Bandhan, which is the first microfinance institution to morph into a bank, began operations with 1.43 crore accounts, a Rs 10,500-crore loan book and 19,500 employees. The bank will have nearly 70% of its branches in rural areas to focus on the unbanked or under-banked rural poor. Bandhan had borrowed about Rs 9,000 crore from various banks when it was a microfinance institution and has sought “relaxation” from the Reserve Bank of India to repay these loans as banks are not allowed to borrow from each other.

 

$10.84 billion

The value of Uber Technologies’ projected global bookings in 2015, against $2.91 billion last year. For 2016, the taxi-hailing service has estimated doubling its 2015 figure: $26.1 billion. Uber operates in 50 countries and takes 20% of the booking revenue. In India, it is aggressively trying to catch up with homegrown Ola Cabs and recently raised around $75-100 million from a Tata Group private equity fund. The company plans to invest around $1 billion in the next 6-9 months in India to achieve its target of 1 million rides a day, from the current 200,000. Ola, which raised $400 million this April as well as an undisclosed amount from Tata Sons Chairman Emeritus Ratan Tata last month, clocks 750,000 rides a day and hopes to hit the one-million mark this month.

 

5 million

The number of jobs lost between 2004-05 and 2009-10, at a time when India’s economy grew at about 8% annually, according to a study by industry body Assocham. It says that though the number of people seeking employment grew at an annual rate of 2.23% between 2001 and 2011, growth in actual employment in this period was only 1.4%. India’s unemployment rate (measured as the number of people actively looking for a job as a percentage of the total labour force) decreased to 4.9% in 2013 from 5.2% in the previous year. Average unemployment rate in India was 7.32% between 1983 and 2013, peaking at 9.4% in 2009.

 

13.4%

The percentage of India’s disinvestment target for 2015-16 the government will achieve if it mops up the targeted Rs 9,302 crore from a 10% stake sale in Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), scheduled for today. With the IOC stake sale, the government would have garnered Rs 12,600 crore, the best ‘first half’ in the last seven financial years. This year, so far, the government has raised around Rs 3,300 crore by selling minority stakes in Power Finance Corporation, Rural Electrical Corporation and Dredging Corporation of India. India’s disinvestments are crucial for achieving its fiscal deficit targets; its target for 2015-16 is 3.9% of GDP. Although it managed to meet its fiscal deficit target in 2014-15, it has missed its disinvestment targets the last five financial years.

 

 

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