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FIFA World Cup: Which Teams Would Make It To The Knockout Stage?

The FIFA World Cup 2018 draws took place at Kremlin, Russia on December 1, 2017. There are 32 teams in the World Cup broken down into 8 groups of 4 teams each. The UEFA, European football’s governing council has 14 teams qualified. CONMEBOL (South America), CAF (Africa), and AFC (Asia) have five participating teams each while CONCACAF (Central and North America) has 3 teams qualified.

All teams are split into four different pots based on their FIFA world rankings, with Pot 1 being the strongest while Pot 4 being weakest. The host nation, i.e. Russia this year, is automatically placed in Pot 1.

FIFA has slightly altered the draw system this time round, which will prevent any “Group of Death” kind scenario in the group stages. Earlier, the pots were determined on a geographic criteria, however now, they are seeded solely based on their rankings.

Below are the seeds for all 32 teams:

 

The groups are then decided on the basis of a draw from each of these pots. Russia, being the host country was seeded into Pot 1, and hence was impossible to be grouped along with a powerhouse like Brazil or Germany. Based on ELO ratings – a measure of team’s quality that takes into account factors such as margin of victory, game importance, game location amongst several others, Russia’s group – Russia, Uruguay, Egypt and Saudi Arabia has an average rating of 1720, which is 98 points worse than the average of all World Cup teams. Additionally, this is the largest difference in group strength and WC average ever seen for any group in the World Cup since the previous decade.

Russia’s luck shone each time another group member was added from the pots. After Uruguay, Egypt, second weakest team of Pot 3, and Saudi Arabia, the weakest team of the WC based on both ELO and FIFA rankings were pooled into Group A, making it by far the most easiest of the Groups in FIFA WC ’18.

Using a combination of ESPN’s SPI (Soccer Power Index) and ELO ratings, we predicted the chances of each team advancing into the knockout stage. In SPI, each team is assigned an offensive and a defensive SPI rating, which is expressed in terms of number of goals it is expected to score and the number of goals it is expected to concede. Thus, a higher offensive SPI rating is good, while a higher defensive SPI rating is bad. After weighing the SPI and ELO ratings, we then ran Monte-Carlo simulations to play out each group fixture 10,000 times for each individual match forecast. For the group predictions, the Monte Carlo simulations remained static.

Following are the chances of each of the teams advancing into the knockout stages:

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Misbehaving Airline Staff: What Does The Data Say About Indigo?

Indigo suffered two major PR disasters within a week – one where a passenger was hurt after she fell off a wheelchair because of gross negligence by an Indigo crew member and another, where a passenger was pinned down by yet another Indigo crew member. The last couple of weeks have been somewhat traumatic for Indigo, with yet another incident wherein ace shuttler P V Sindhu alleged misbehaviour by Indigo crew members.

Indigo, largely known for its on-time USP and pre-flight formalities, is in an expansion drive while already controlling 40% of the domestic Indian market share.

Which airlines do Indians fly domestically?

Monthly data from the Directorate General of Civil Aviation shows that while Air India has been gradually ceding market space to its private rivals, Indigo has maintained its dominating presence catering to 4 out of 10 Indians flying domestically.

Market share of Indian domestic airlines

Misbehaving crew has been a major grouse for passengers, with complaints under that tab ranging from 6-12% of all complaints.

Share of misbehaving crew

Air India has also seen the highest number of complaints per 10,000 passengers over time. Considering its scale of operations, Indigo has till now maintained one of the lowest rates of passenger complaints. However, its recent run-ins with misbehaving crew members, it is yet to see whether data will reflect the same. Watch this space for regular updates.

No. of complaints per 10k pax

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How does India commute to work?  

With the current debate raging over Delhi metro fare hike and its feasibility, How India Lives takes a look at how Indians living in 8 mega-cities commute to work.

We analysed Census 2011 dataset for Indians who are neither employed in agriculture nor in household industries living in 8 of India’s biggest cities – Ahmedabad, Bangalore, Chennai, Delhi-NCR, Hyderabad, Kolkata, Lucknow and Mumbai.

A large proportion of them, ~36%, either live at their place of work, or have little to no distance to commute, while only ~20% commute more than 10 kilometres every day.

In India, traditional cities were developed in a way that required little or no commute as people chose to live close to work as long-distance commuting essentially impacted their earnings. This trend is clearly manifested in the visualization below, where close to three-quarters of all working people live within 10 kilometres of their workplace. Metro is mainly used for longer trips, with average trips close to 16 kilometres.

In the 8 cities, walking is still the most preferred mode of commuting, largely because of small distances to work. In Delhi-NCR, 22% walk to work and only a minuscule 3% take the train. Except Mumbai, where an equal proportion take the train and walk to work (25%), buses cater to the second largest proportion of people commuting to work. Given the length of the average commute even in top Indian cities, buses and other means of public transport cater to a much larger share of the population while receiving only a fraction of the total investments.

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